Capital Flows to Latin America (2003–17): A Critical Survey from Prebisch’s Business Cycle Theory

ABSTRACT

The economic literature on capital flows to developing countries has shared two important commonalities since the 1990s. Published works (whether they focus on the external situation or stress the domestic determinants of capital flows) tend to assume a beneficial effect of capital inflows, which leads to an improvement of peripheral institutions, whose deficiencies are ostensibly the main cause of economic turmoil and/or failure in attracting capital flows, in continuity with New Institutional Economics. In doing so, mainstream economists deliberately overlook the asymmetric characteristics of the international monetary system and the persisting hegemony of dollar. Raul Prebisch’s pioneering work on business cycles in Latin America provide an alternative view, one capable of amending the existing mainstream literature. On the one hand, Prebisch stressed the destabilizing role of capital inflows on Latin American economies, particularly short-term speculative capital. On the other hand, Prebisch designed a set of counter cyclical monetary policies in order to contrast capital volatility, particularly during downturns. An analysis of stylized facts shows that, when correctly updated, Prebisch’s theory has remarkable explanatory potential when applied to Latin America’s current economic and financial situation.     

The long overhang of bad decisions in agro-industrial development: Sugar and tomato paste in Ghana

In theory, learning from past mistakes should result in adapted and improved development policy. However policy learning can be difficult to achieve, and the link between learning and policy change is neither direct nor immediate. In this study we look at learning in agro-industrial policy in Ghana, by tracing the interest in sugar production and tomato processing over six decades. Specifically we ask why four failed factories established in the early 1960s have continued to play central roles in both policy and public discourse. Using policy documents, academic material, and the popular press, we show that Ghana’s policy focus on sugar production and tomato processing has endured, despite the fact that the factories were misconceived, poorly sited, ill-equipped and poorly managed. Indeed, the political ideas that underpinned the establishment of these factories in the early days of independence can be seen in the current One District, One Factory policy. We suggest that it is their symbolic and political value, not their economic value, which keeps the discussion around these factories alive. Even when shut down, they are a physical manifestation of historic commitments by the state, and as such they guarantee the attention of politicians, and hold out hope of a next re-launch. Unfortunately as long as the factories continue to be incorporated into each new generation of agro-industrial policy, it is difficult for any alternatives to gain traction. This analysis highlights the very long overhang of bad decisions, particularly when they are associated with physical infrastructure. Learning from past mistakes will only happen if the short-term political cost of turning policy learning into policy action can be overcome.     

The role of the entrepreneurial encounter in the emergence of opportunities: Vallée’s Dallas Buyers Club

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to explore the conceptual potential of the Deleuzian notion of the encounter in order to better understand the genealogy of opportunities. We adopt a processual perspective of opportunities. In order to translate this notion to the domain of entrepreneurship, we analysed and interpreted Jean-Marc Vallée’s Dallas Buyers Club. This film follows the creation of the first club in the United States that illegally allowed HIV-positive people to supply themselves with foreign antiretroviral drugs from Mexico or Japan. The article highlights encounters in this process that disturb the entrepreneur’s belief systems and allow him or her to be open to potential opportunity. It finally explores how the encounter may improve our understanding of the political becoming of opportunities within the entrepreneurial process.     

Fuzzy modelling of static system optimum traffic assignment problem having multi origin-destination pair

Traffic congestion is an unpreventable problem to avoid in a transportation network and it has negative effects on traffic accident, time wasting, traffic delay and safety problem. Besides, in transportation networks, drivers do not want to deal with traffic jam while traversing between specified origin-destination pair. Therefore, traffic assignment (TA) is imperative to improve traffic management, transportation safety, time, and cost savings. System Optimum Traffic Assignment Problem (SOTAP) is a kind of TA model which aims to minimize the total system travel time on the network, and satisfies the flow conservation constraints. To model the SOTAP more realistically, the imprecise parameters can be taken as fuzzy. Therefore, in this paper, we focus on converting the conventional SOTAP to a fuzzy quadratic programming problem (QPP) which is named System Optimum Fuzzy Traffic Assignment Problem (SOFTAP). Here, link travel time is expressed with BPR function as generally used in the literature by converting to fuzzy except link-dependent parameters. Thus, the nonlinear objective function of SOFTAP is expressed in terms of fuzzy link flows and fuzzy link travel times. A solution approach from the literature is modified to the reconstructed SOFTAP.     

河南省农业生态旅游产业可持续发展评价研究

[目的]河南农业生态旅游作为一种可持续发展的旅游形式,为河南的经济发展作为了重要贡献。对河南农业生态旅游产业可持续发展进行评价研究,是促进农业生态旅游可持续健康发展的重要保证。[方法]文章通过实地调研构建河南农业生态旅游产业可持续发展评价指标体系,运用层次分析法,确定指标权重,结合专家评分法,对各项评价指标打分,并计算河南农业生态旅游产业可持续发展的综合得分,结合农业生态旅游产业可持续发展评价标准,得出目前河南农业生态旅游产业可持续发展水平。[结果]河南农业生态旅游产业可持续发展评价得分为72.45,处于基本可持续发展阶段,并对当前河南农业生态旅游发展现状和存在的农业生态旅游意识淡薄、旅游产品特色不明显、缺少政府资金扶持和缺乏经营管理人才等问题进行了分析。[结论]基于上述问题,提出了提高环保意识、走可持续发展之路;开发特色原生态旅游产品;加强政府支持和引导;加强专业培训,打造专业队伍等对策。     

基于经济新常态的长春市水资源开发利用潜力评价

以长春市为研究对象,基于未来经济处于新常态的发展态势,构建包含水资源、社会、经济、生态环境4个子系统的评价指标体系,并确定各指标的评价等级标准;基于模糊数学理论以及层次分析法构建包括目标层、准则层、指标层的3层模糊综合评价模型,以2015年为现状水平年,应用模型对长春市水资源开发利用潜力进行综合评价。结果表明:长春市水资源开发利用程度处于中等偏上水平,各辖区水资源开发利用规模不平衡,可通过产业结构调整提高全市用水效率,为经济持续增长提供保障。     

辽西北地区农业干旱危险性评价与区划

[目的]开展农业干旱危险性评价与区划研究,为辽宁省西北地区农业防旱抗灾工作提供科学依据。[方法]文章根据联合国国际减灾战略署(ISDR)对农业干旱危险性的定义,分析了构成研究区作物干旱危险性的致灾因子和孕灾环境因子,采用层次分析法确定了各因子的权重,构建了研究区农业干旱危险性评价指标和模型。以2009年为例,通过利用降雨、土壤、农业生产类型及地形等数据计算了辽西北地区农业干旱危险性评价指数,利用自然间断点法分级干旱危险性评价指数,并借助GIS技术,绘制研究区农业干旱危险性等级区划图。[结果] 2009年作物生长期间研究区农业干旱危险性由高到低排列为:朝阳市葫芦岛市锦州市阜新市铁岭市沈阳市。[结论]辽西北地区农业干旱危险性等级区的划分,能够帮助政府管理部门为面临干旱威胁不同的区域建立适当的防灾方法和有效的应急预案。     

A play-the-winner-type urn design with reduced variability

We propose a new adaptive allocation rule, the drop-the-loser, that randomizes subjects in the course of a trial comparing treatments with dichotomous outcomes. The rule tends to assign more patients to better treatments with the same limiting proportion as the randomized play-the-winner rule. The new design has significantly less variable allocation proportion than the randomized play-the-winner rule. Decrease in variability translates into a gain in statistical power. For some values of success probabilities the drop-the-loser rule has a double advantage over conventional equal allocation in that it has better power and assigns more subjects to the better treatment. Acknowledgments. I thank Stephen Durham, the associate editor, and the referees for their helpful suggestions.     

基于模糊意见集中排序法的建筑工程资格预审

建筑工程资格预审无论对业主还是对承包商都至关重要，根据建筑工程的特点，在目前普遍采用的资格预审评价方法的基础之上，总结了进行资格预审的评价指标体系，并提出了基于模糊数学意见集中排序法的建筑工程资格预审方法。     

Sources, uses, and forms of data in the new product development process

This paper presents qualitative and exploratory research investigating the role that managing knowledge and information plays in new product development (NPD). A set of 20 in-depth interviews uncovered eight basic types of information used throughout the NPD process and three general approaches to managing information needed in the NPD process. Although some exemplary companies seem to do an outstanding job of collecting and disseminating information, the majority of firms struggle. NPD process automation solutions tackle part of the problem, ignoring nonquantitative data forms and the full picture of information use throughout the entire development process.